LaGrow: Houston will cut down nets at home
It’s time for March Madness again.
The tournament brackets were announced Sunday night, and the First Four games began Tuesday and will continue today, with the full tournament starting Thursday.
Here’s a preview of what’s to come:
TOUGHEST REGION
West. Kansas was the regular-season champion in the toughest conference, and to make the Final Four the Jayhawks will have to win the toughest region. UCLA is dealing with an injury and still only lost to Arizona by two in the Pac 12 final. Gonzaga has the best offense in the country. UConn is the toughest No. 4 seed this year, and St. Mary’s a dangerous No. 5. Even sleepers like VCU and TCU are no joke.
EASIEST REGION
Nothing’s actually easy in March, but both Alabama and Houston have smooth tracks to the Elite Eight. The Tide will overwhelm Virginia or San Diego State in the Sweet 16. Even with Marcus Sasser’s injury, Houston should face little resistance until a likely regional final against Texas. Despite some minor upsets, chalk in the Nos. 1s and 2s in the South and Midwest.
INTERESTING GAMES
Texas A&M vs. Texas is a potential second-round game; they are hated rivals from A&M’s days in the Big 12 and they’ll renew that rivalry when Texas joins the SEC next year. There’s a potential rematch in the Sweet 16 of the thrilling 2021 overtime Final Four game between UCLA and Gonzaga — as it happens, UCLA has the No. 1 defense and the Zags have the No. 1 offense (both per KenPom.com). Albany will be rocking when trendy title favorite Connecticut faces Iona, coached by two-time champion Rick Pitino.
TEAMS TO WATCH
Creighton, a No. 6 seed, will be a real threat to No. 3 seed Baylor, which has lost four of six. No. 8 seed Memphis just whacked Houston in the AAC title game and will probably meet Purdue in the second round. No. 10 seed Utah State, per KenPom.com, rates as the 19th-best team in the country, a whopping 32 spots higher than first-round opponent Missouri and just nine spots behind likely second-round foe Arizona. Don’t sleep on the Aggies.
5-12 SEED UPSETS?
It’s well known that No. 12 seeds frequently upset No. 5 seeds. VCU is probably the best and hottest team right now among the 12s, but St. Mary’s will be a really tough matchup for them. This is a REALLY good group of No. 5 seeds. Duke is on a roll, and both San Diego State and St. Mary’s have top-10 defenses. ACC regular-season champ Miami is probably the best upset pick, as they rate far behind the other No. 5 seeds in KenPom.com ratings. Bonus: it always seems like a No. 11 seed finds its way into the second weekend, and this year consider Providence, which still has players from last year’s Sweet 16 run, and only Kentucky and Kansas State, both beatable, in the way.
EARLY EXITS?
Any of the No. 1 or No. 2 seeds could win it all this year, but some have issues. Alabama has off-court distractions. Houston and UCLA have injury concerns, and Kansas coach Bill Self was recently hospitalized. While the Big 12 is justifiably considered the best conference, Baylor finished poorly and Kansas State seems to have weak power ratings for a No. 3 seed. And before getting some breaks in the Big 10 tournament, Purdue finished the season a shaky 4-4 and drew a Memphis team that blew out Houston and red-hot Duke and Marquette in their region.
FINAL FOUR PICKS
Getting to the Final Four comes down to luck, momentum, consistency and balance. Momentum will get Marquette there; they’ve won 14 of 15 games. It will take luck for any team to get out of the brutal West, and Gonzaga will get those bounces. Alabama has lost one game each month of the season (how’s that for consistency?) and they already lost once in March. But to win it all, recent history shows you need offensive and defensive balance. The Houston Cougars have that (top 11 in offense and defense) plus the experience from deep runs in the last two tournaments. With the Final Four in Houston, the Cougars will close it out and cut the nets in front of their fans.



