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Future of Atlantic Division on display

AP Photo Buffalo Sabres left wing Zach Benson (6) and Montréal Canadiens right wing Zachary Bolduc (76) are separated during the second period in Game 1 of a second-round playoff series on Wednesday in Buffalo, N.Y.

EDITOR’S NOTE: This column was written on Tuesday night in place of the game story for Wednesday night’s Buffalo-Montreal second-round matchup that was not available for press time. A full story on the Sabres’ 4-2 win in Game 1 will be available online at timesobserver.com.

BUFFALO — After many grueling seasons in hockey purgatory, the Buffalo Sabres returned to the NHL postseason and with a first-round victory over the Boston Bruins and established themselves as legitimate contenders for the league’s top prize. In order to further prove that point, Buffalo takes on the only team in the Stanley Cup Playoffs that is composed of a younger roster with a likewise bright future, the Montreal Canadiens.

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Since the first phase of the Sabres drought was completed, the tank for Connor McDavid and instead landing Jack Eichel, Buffalo went up and down with several rosters that ultimately were just playoff pretenders.

After some questionable offseason decisions by Kevyn Adams in his last summer as the general manager was directly followed by a slow start to this year, it looked like Buffalo would be back in the lottery and in the running to pick No. 1 overall for the first time since Owen Power was selected by the team in 2021.

Former Sabres goaltender Ryan Miller signs an autograph for me on December 9, 2009, after shutting out the Washington Capitals 3-0. This photo is from the last time the Sabres won the division in the 2009-10 season.

However, the Sabres instead turned the ship in the right direction in December and, during that streak of 10 wins, parted ways with Adams in favor of Jarmo Kekalainen. The win streak put the Sabres in playoff contention by the middle of January, but just like in recent years with head coach Donny Granato in 2023 and 2024 there was doubt that Buffalo could finish strong and clinch a playoff spot in the competitive Atlantic Division.

Well, that fall off never came and instead of just sneaking into the playoffs to end the drought, Buffalo had a statement season that this team is for real, clinching a division title for the first time since 2010 when the organization won the Northeast Division behind Ryan Miller’s Vezina Trophy-winning campaign with 100 points and claiming the Atlantic with a record of 50-23-9 and 109 points.

Down the home stretch it was both the Tampa Bay Lightning and Montreal Canadiens chasing the Sabres for the division title, ultimately finishing second and third, respectively, each with 106 points.

Montreal escaped into the second round with a 2-1 victory in a close seven-game series despite being outshot by the Lightning 29-9 in Game 7.

For the casual fan, it was an easy decision to rather play Montreal in the second-round as opposed to the veteran-laden Lightning that still has many players from the Stanley Cup victory in 2021 and runner-up appearance in 2022.

Christian Storms

Now, the second-round series will not just be for a trip to the Eastern Conference Finals, but an insight into which team could establish itself as the dominating force in arguably the NHL’s best division.

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As the two youngest teams in the playoffs, they are more alike than just the age comparison.

Working from the back-end out, both the Sabres and Canadiens have had a rotation in the crease without a dominant force in net. The Sabres and Canadiens both boast impressive top-four defensive groups that are led by Norris Trophy-caliber superstars. Then, each team has an elite first line that features two of the best American goal scorers in the NHL.

Montreal starting goalie Jakub Dobes silenced the Lightning in Game 7, while Alex Lyon finished the series strong for Buffalo, but I would give the slight edge to the Canadiens.

The counting statistics are in favor of Lyon, who gave up just five goals in his five appearances in the first round, while posting a 1.14 goals-against average and .955 save percentage against the Bruins. Whereas, Dobes posted a respectable 2.03 goals-against average and .923 save percentage against the Lightning, who were undoubtedly a tougher opponent than the Bruins offensively.

Dobes gets the nod from me with a help in advanced stats, according to moneypuck.com, stopping 16.5 goals above expected this season, which ranks him eighth in the NHL, while Lyon was 11th in that very stat with 12.6 goals saved above expected. On top of that, Dobes also won both of his games against the Sabres this season and Lyon hovered around a .900 save percentage in both his losses against Montreal this year.

If Buffalo can crack the code on Dobes and chase him in the playoffs, the Sabres rotation of netminders with Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen and Colten Ellis supersedes the paltry depth of Montreal with backups Sam Montembeault and 21-year-old Jacob Fowler, the future in the crease.

It is another close debate on the blue line, but Buffalo should have the narrow advantage with more size, experience and skill than the scrappy Canadiens.

National media will highlight the head-to-head comparison of No. 1 defensemen Rasmus Dahlin for Buffalo and Lane Hutson for Montreal.

Both players are among the NHL’s elite on the blue line, especially from an offensive standpoint, with Dahlin providing Buffalo with 19 goals and 55 assists for 74 points in 77 games and Hutson notching 12 goals and 66 assists for 78 points in 82 games.

Sabres fans know that Dahlin brings much more than offensive production to the team and, rightfully so, after few appearances on the scoresheet in the first-round series, while Hutson does not bring the same snarl to his game that makes opponents dread playing against him. Hutson is much more the NHL prototype Norris Trophy defenseman that will rely on offense like Quinn Hughes and in the near future he will probably surpass Dahlin’s regular point totals.

However, in the playoffs playing in all three zones is key and Dahlin in the offensive zone is just as good, can match Hutson in the neutral zone and laps him in the defensive zone. It is more obvious with Bowen Byram, Owen Power and Mattias Samuelsson rounding out the top four better than Noah Dobson, Michael Matheson and Kaiden Guhle — younger brother of former Sabres defenseman Brendan Guhle.

Byram’s Stanley Cup winning experience puts him over Dobson, Power and Samuelsson’s ability at both ends of the ice and surpasses the ability of both Matheson and Guhle. Then, as for the third pair, both teams will hope for good health.

The Canadiens have the slight advantage again up front, but it is close with the questions of health in the Buffalo lineup.

The top-line matchup will be key to the series as stars must shine in the playoffs and blame can be put on the goaltenders they faced, but the leaders paled in comparison to the rest of the NHL in the first round.

The Buffalo top line of Peyton Krebs-Tage Thompson-Alex Tuch was unable to crack the code consistently against Boston’s Jeremy Swayman — moneypuck’s second-best goalie this season — and Montreal’s unit Cole Caufield-Nick Suzuki-Juraj Slafkovsky faced expected results against Tampa Bay’s Andrei Vasilevskiy — moneypuck’s fourth-best goalie this season.

However, head-to-head, Suzuki is the No. 1 center teams wish they had with a complete defensive game and the ability to score 100 points in a season on offense, while Thompson has had a hard time earning head coach Lindy Ruff’s trust down the middle with several attempts to plant him on the wing.

But matching play styles, Tuch is much more like Suzuki, but he still is mightily weaker on offense and has the slight edge on defensive strength. Thompson and Caufield are two of the NHL’s best goal scorers, while doing so at about a foot of height difference and not the way you would think. Caufield scored the second-most goals this season with 51 and does it by ripping shots after finding soft ice for Suzuki to send him an open pass, as opposed to Thompson who often creates his own scoring plays through his dangling ability and elite patience with the puck.

Then, the 2022 No. 1 pick, Slafkovsky, is almost better in every aspect than Krebs as both serve as the third guy on the top line that does a lot of the dirty work as the other two cash in. That role most often is done by an elite forechecker, and Slafkovsky’s skating and size are the big reason he was selected first four years ago and it is paying dividends for the Canadiens.

Montreal has a blend of experience and youth among its middle-six forwards, highlighted by the second line of Brendan Gallagher-Alex Newhook-Ivan Demidov. Gallagher played a pivotal role in the Canadiens surprise run to the Stanley Cup Final in 2021, Newhook was a rookie and bottom-six center on the Colorado team that won in 2022 and Demidov is the next Russian phenom who provided 62 points in his rookie season this year, but has just one assist in the playoffs.

With scrappy play being rewarded in the action against the Bruins, the Sabres “third-line” made a case for more ice time this series, but the “second-line” of Jason Zucker-Ryan McLeod-Jack Quinn could have its moments against a Montreal team more inclined to join the Sabres in “River Hockey” instead of classic smash and bash playoff hockey.

Despite being Buffalo’s third-highest scoring forward with 54 points, McLeod has shown his true colors as being a center stuck between the second and third line. With his speed and tendencies for the defensive side of the game, he is best suited for a shutdown role, but instead has found himself between defensive black holes Zucker and Quinn who can certainly help provide offense and are just as likely to leave you scratching your head.

Montreal rounds out its top nine with Jake Evans-Philip Danault-Josh Anderson and that is more like the traditional shutdown third line with an upper-echelon two-way center in Danault and hard-to- play against wingers in Evans and Anderson. If the trio are not tasked with shutting down Tuch and Thompson, Buffalo should be able to outwork that grouping with the trio of Zach Benson-Josh Norris-Josh Doan.

There is too much offensive potential on the Buffalo “third-line,” especially with how Benson and Doan finished the series against the Bruins, showing they have exactly what people think of with key playoff performers: scrappy players who can combine for big-time goals. If not struggling with injuries, Norris is the Sabres legitimate answer for second or even first-line center as he adds a scoring touch seen only with Thompson and Tuch.

Montreal’s bottom line of Zach Bolduc-Kirby Dach-Alex Texier has already delivered for the Canadiens this postseason, while Buffalo is currently in limbo with its group that has featured Jordan Greenway, Beck Malenstyn, Tyson Kozak and Josh Dunne.

Montreal’s is better in almost every aspect, but if Sam Carrick can return from his injury, the Sabres match up much better at forward.

My bias allows me to believe that Buffalo has the better team and I see no reason the Sabres should not be able to win in 6 or 7 games, but the pessimist in me sees a reality where Montreal sneaks by just like it did in the first round.

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Consistency will be key for both teams and the top players need to get hot and stay hot. Currently, there is not a Sabre or Canadien in the top 15 of playoff scoring.

Goaltenders should not be expected to steal games, but certainly Dobes and Lyon have to keep out the easy goals and not cause their teams to lose.

Depth has to show up when the going gets tough. Oftentimes it is not the superstar in hockey who is the hero in clutch moments, Justin Williams is Mr. Game 7 in the NHL, not Wayne Gretzky or Sidney Crosby. Players like Benson, Doan, Quinn and Malenstyn could break the series for the Sabres, while Montreal needs Demidov to come alive this round or watch Newhook and Bolduc become the players they expected to be when traded to the Canadiens.

My expectations are for the series to look much different than the matchup with the Bruins, but I do not perceive an explosion of goals with both Lyon and Dobes in good form. It very likely could look just like Montreal’s first round, which means Buffalo will need to finish games strong, as they all should be close.

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