We’re not surprised by estimates showing Warren County’s population has fallen.

People leaving, or those who remain not having enough children to keep population levels high, is the new normal not just for Warren County or other rural Pennsylvania counties but rural counties in New York state as well.

What’s surprising is the pace of population decline. Warren County’s population has decreased an estimated 4% from 2020 to 2025, placing it among the counties with the steepest declines in the state. The figures reflect a broader regional pattern, with nearby rural counties such as Forest, McKean, Elk and Cameron also experiencing significant losses. Forty-one of Pennsylvania’s 67 counties, including Warren, recorded population declines. Statewide, deaths exceeded births by roughly 89,300, contributing to what is often called a “natural decrease.” At the same time, domestic outmigration continued, with more than 54,000 residents leaving Pennsylvania, though this was offset by an influx of nearly 196,700 international migrants. Much of that influx, though, is centered on urban areas.

Local officials are working to stem Warren County’s population decline through efforts like Warren Worx and supporting broadband internet network construction. Our problem is population loss is a self-fulfilling prophecy. Jobs leave, so people leave. As people leave we struggle to have the workforce that can fill the jobs that we want to attract. So more people leave in search of economic opportunity.

We can’t expect population loss to reverse itself overnight. But a good start would be to see population loss in one of these Census Bureau updates come in closer to 1% than 5% over a five-year period. It’s hard to begin to rebound until you’ve hit rock bottom – and the most recent Census Bureau estimates show we’ve yet to hit our floor when it comes to our population.