Projections of a “red tsunami” coming with the midterm elections earlier this month turned into much more of a “red trickle.”

Nationally, the House flipped from Democratic to Republican but by a very narrow majority that, in many ways, defied historical precedent.

Republicans didn’t flip a single seat in the U.S. Senate with the sole pickup occurring in Pennsylvania — John Fetterman’s win over Mehmet Oz by over 250,000 votes.

Pundits will dissect the “why” for the foreseeable future — turnout, abortion and the Supreme Court, bad candidates — but ultimately its a numbers game.

And while Warren County is deeply red, it wasn’t as red as it was in 2020 — both major statewide Republican candidates significantly underperformed former President Donald Trump.

While it’s only a few thousand votes here, those “few thousand votes” add up over dozens of similar small, red counties across the state.

In 2020, the Trump/Pence ticket received 14,020 votes in the county, carrying 68% to the 29% that voted for Biden/Harris.

Oz’s countywide total was 10,175, according to precinct-level voting data provided by county officials.

Doug Mastriano in the race for governor received 9,704 votes.

Oz carried Warren County with 63% — 5% less than Trump — and Mastriano just 60%. Oz outperformed Mastriano by more than 450 votes.

That discrepancy was even more pronounced for voters in the City of Warren.

Oz received 54% to Fetterman’s 46% and the governor’s race was split by a 12-vote edge for Mastriano over Josh Shapiro. Statistically, both pulled 48%.

Shapiro actually won two city precincts outright.

Turnout in this month’s election was 61.13%, high for a midterm and only 4% lower than the 2020 presidential election; 50.45% of that total voted in person while 10.51 voted by mail.

The highest turnout at a precinct level was 71.22% in Deerfield Township. Cherry Grove, Elk, Limestone and Pine Grove were all at 70% or higher.

On the flipside, multiple City of Warren precincts saw less than 50% turnout, though the city’s total turnout rate was 53%.

Four additional municipalities were in the 50s — Brokenstraw (58), Sheffield (58), Bear Lake (53) and Clarendon, the lowest, at 50%.