Graphic from the National Weather Service Weather stands to have a great impact on the view of the upcoming total solar eclipse. This graphic from the National Weather Services shows cloud data recorded since the 1940s at Erie International Airport.

The best laid plans for eclipse viewing can be undone by a force completely out of one’s control – the weather.

“Are we going to see it? There’s a good chance we will,” Tom Traub, a NASA eclipse ambassador told a gathering at the Warren Public Library last week.

He pointed out that the region was cloudless on April 8, 2023, and that climate data for the last 25 years shows a 61% chance of clouds.

“We will have a good chance,” he stressed, noting that the odds don’t improve anywhere along the path of totality until you get to central Texas.

Part of the impact for what we get to see here is the impact of Lake Erie.

Traub said air coming over the lake cools, which can result in clouds dissipating.

The National Weather Service’s Cleveland weather forecast office indicates the weather pattern on the day will shape the lake’s impact.

“On a warm spring day, sometimes a phenomenon called a lake shadow is noted downwind of the lake, with cooler temperatures and less cloud cover observed along the lakeshore,” the NWS explains. “On a cold spring day, there may be higher amounts of lake effect cloud cover or precipitation near Lake Erie.”

The National Weather Service’s extended forecast doesn’t get out to April 8 yet. The Weather Channel’s forecast for Warren on April 8 currently includes weather that’s partly cloudy with a high of 57 degrees and a low of 42.

NWS Climatology data taken from the Erie International Airport – the closest source of data to Warren – from the National Weather Services helps to lay out the odds.

The average high temperature is 54 while the average low is 35 and there’s no rain on 51 percent of April 8th since 1926.

Data shows that no weather was observed on 55.8% of April 8ths since 1948 though 60 percent of those days were classified as “overcast.”

Even if there are clouds here on April 8, it won’t be a total loss.

“If it is cloudy, raining, or snowing, you probably won’t see the eclipse,” NASA details. “Even if it’s cloudy and you can’t see the sun, the skies will still grow darker.”

Traub said the odds come down to a coin toss.

“I can’t make you any better prediction,” he said. “It’s still going to get dark. Depending on how thick the clouds are, (we) still may see the sun and corona.”