Hawaii could see nation's greatest decline in number of high school graduates

Hawaiʻi is expected to see the greatest decline in high school graduates in the nation over the next several years, raising concerns from lawmakers and Department of Education officials about the future of small schools in shrinking communities.

Between 2023 and 2041, Hawaiʻi could see a 33% drop in the number of students graduating from high school, according to the Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education. The nation as a whole is projected to see a 10% drop in graduates, according to the commission’s most recent report, published at the end of 2024.

In 2041, public schools in the state are expected to award diplomas to just over 7,600 students, down from roughly 11,500 in 2023. Private schools are expected to see a similar drop in their graduating senior classes over the same time frame.

Already, the education department has seen its enrollment drop by nearly 12% over the past decade, with school leaders citing the state’s declining birth rate and the number of families leaving Hawaiʻi in recent years.

Last year, the department discussed the possibility of closing or consolidating schools, with some lawmakers and school leaders arguing that it was financially unsustainable to keep small campuses open. But the department changed course last fall, proposing a redistricting plan to avoid closures.

Closing schools is a controversial and slow process. The department hasn’t closed a school since 2011, when it received strong pushback from families and community members around its decision to shutter Queen Liliʻuokalani Elementary School in Kaimukī.

Now, some lawmakers want to force the department to take swifter action. One bill introduced last week by Sen. Troy Hashimoto would establish an independent commission to review school facilities and recommend the consolidation, closure or realignment of schools.

“Decades of enrollment growth led to the construction of new campuses, but the recent and continuing decline in student numbers has left many facilities underutilized,” the bill states, adding that Hawaiʻi is facing more financial constraints amid possible federal cuts.

The bill requires the commission to submit its findings to the Legislature and the governor by fall 2027. If lawmakers and the governor approve the findings, DOE would be required to implement the commission’s recommendations following the 2028 legislative session.

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Civil Beat’s education reporting is supported by a grant from Chamberlin Family Philanthropy, and “Data Dive” is supported in part by the Will J. Reid Foundation.

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This story was originally published by Honolulu Civil Beat and distributed through a partnership with The Associated Press.