Breaking down the men’s field
Welcome back to the madness of March.
This year, Buffalo is part of it all, hosting eight teams and six games over the first weekend. Last year we had four No. 1 seeds all make the Final Four for the first time since 2008, but just three years ago we had zero No. 1 seeds get through. The top seeds look as formidable as ever, but will they ALL break through? Let’s take a look.
WEST: Purdue is on a roll and can score with anybody. Gonzaga is a tough out every year. Arkansas just won a very deep SEC tournament. None of them are going to beat Arizona. The Wildcats have only lost two games (against Kansas and a full-strength Texas Tech), but they beat fellow No. 1 seed Florida and won FIVE GAMES against this year’s No. 2 seeds: twice each against Houston and Iowa State, and once over Connecticut. Take Arizona in the West Region and put it in ink. Look elsewhere for early upsets, this region seems very chalky.
MIDWEST: Miami (Ohio) 93, Akron 64. Not a score: those are Ken Pomeroy’s rankings (KenPom) of those teams, and note that Akron is considerably higher than the MAC’s regular-season champs. I’m rooting for both, but pick Akron to beat a wounded and fading Texas Tech team, who lost a key player for the season. Can’t see Miami (Ohio) beating SMU, much less Alabama, in this region. I think Virginia goes down early too, to either No. 10 Santa Clara or No. 7 Kentucky. But this region will come down to Iowa State and Michigan. This will be a fantastic Elite Eight game and Michigan will win a tight one.
SOUTH: This might be the most interesting region. Nebraska has a great chance to win its first tournament game. … ever! McNeese might be a good upset pick. … if Vanderbilt weren’t so tough. The Commodores are a No. 5 seed but are 12th in KenPom’s rankings (equivalent to a No. 3 seed), which measures teams’ offensive and defensive efficiency. After splitting with Florida, I think they beat the Gators in the Sweet 16. This region’s games will be played in Houston, and Houston was assigned here. The Cougars beat Vandy in a virtual home game for them.
EAST: Duke is the top overall seed, and earned it. Two losses by 4 total points. Two wins over No. 1 seeds. FIVE more wins over top-4 seeds. It’s all pointing toward Duke by a landslide. But some of the best coaches in college hoops history are in this region: Pitino (St. John’s). Hurley (UConn). Self (Kansas). Izzo (Michigan State). Duke’s Scheyer may join them someday, maybe even this year … but unless Duke gets one or both of their injured starters back, I’ll take the field — one of those teams will bust this bracket. I think St. John’s will do the deed, they are on an absolute roll. And since I’m not going the easy route here, I’m going to take Tom Izzo’s battle tested Spartans over the two Big East leaders.
BOLD-ISH PREDICTIONS: If you remember my previous bracket previews, I’m a sucker for Virginia Commonwealth (VCU). But this year they’re playing a wounded North Carolina team that KenPom sees as closer to a No. 8 seed than a 6, so I’m taking the No. 11 seed here.
Akron over TTU might be a stretch, but doable for the Zips. I like South Florida to knock off Louisville, but win or lose, we’ll see if USF’s head coach is interviewed or hired by Syracuse (he has Western New York connections). I know I mentioned Florida losing in the Sweet 16 to Vandy, but don’t be too shocked if Iowa takes them down before that — per KenPom, the Hawkeyes are closer to a No. 5 or No. 6 seed than the No. 9 they were given.
FINAL FOUR: Michigan State. Houston. Michigan. Arizona. Sparty last won in 2000, Arizona in 1997, Michigan in 1989, and Houston … never. Two Big 10 teams, and two Big 12 teams. Look for Houston to return to the finals and face their Big 12 nemesis Arizona (neither team was even IN the Big 12 four years ago). It’s hard to beat a team three times, but Arizona’s 7-0 track record against four of the top eight teams makes me think they’ll complete the sweep of the Cougars and cut the nets in Indianapolis.




