Each year, waterfowl hunters wonder what the season will be like and how many ducks they can expect to see. The Waterfowl Population Survey, conducted by the U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service, was released on Sept. 2. In addition to the USF&W survey, seven individual states conducted their own surveys, and those results were also released in late August. Let’s see where things stand and what waterfowl hunters can expect this season.

OVERVIEW

According to the USF&W report, the biggest problem facing waterfowl in 2025 was habitat. More specifically, the loss of habitat. While most people will interpret this as the result of development, a common problem for many species, the report points to weather being the overwhelming concern. During the winter of 2024-25, the traditional breeding ground in Canada and the north-central United States experienced temperatures below average, resulting in wetter-than-normal conditions. This, in turn, resulted in less spring runoff and a decrease in pond and puddle acreage available to the breeding pairs.

The overall population of breeding-age ducks was estimated to be 34 million (+/- 0.6 million). This estimate does not include several species, including elders, long-tailed ducks, mergansers and wood ducks. The 34 million estimate is below the long-term average of 35.4 million, but unchanged from 2024.

INDIVIDUAL SPECIES OF CONCERN

The mallard population was estimated at 6.6 million ducks, similar to 2024, but almost 17% below the long-term average.

Pintails were estimated at 2.2 million birds. Although this is 41% below the long-term average, it is also 13% above the 2024 estimate. This means that hunters in all four major flyways can expect to see the daily limit for pintails to increase to three birds during the 2026-27 season.

Gadwalls were estimated at 2.4 million birds. This is a 6% increase over 2024 and a 17% increase from the long-term average.

American Widgeon are estimated at 3.1 million birds. This reflects a 9% increase from 2024 and a 22% increase on the long-term average.

Green-winged Teal, estimated at 2.5 million, showed a 15% decrease from 2024. Despite this, the population remains 16% above the long-term average.

Northern Shovelers, estimated at 2.7 million, enjoyed a 4% increase compared to both 2024 and the long-term average.

Like mallards, Blue-winged Teal are estimated to have an overall drop in numbers. This year’s estimate of 4.4 million represents a 4% decline from 2024 and a 13% decrease from the long-term average.

Scaup also showed a decrease. The estimated population of 3.6 million indicated a reduction of 10% since 2024 and a 25% decrease compared to the long-term average, making this the most significant decline of any species.

Although Redheads and Canvasbacks make up the smallest percentage of the overall duck population, at 0.9 million and 0.7 million, respectively, they nonetheless showed a substantial increase. Redheads are up 17% from 2024 and 25% on the long-term average. Likewise, Canvasbacks showed a 22% increase from 2024 and a 17% lead on the long-term average.

While the overall report is neutral, with the total population closely resembling that of 2024, the losses were outweighed by the gains. It is especially encouraging to see increases in favorite species such as pintails, canvasbacks, and redheads. Although this information will not change the 2025-2026 bag limits, it does mean that hunters should expect to see at least as many ducks as last season, although the individual species numbers may vary a bit.