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A fool’s errand: Breaking down the 2017 NCAA Tournament

Gonzaga's Przemek Karnowski (24) cuts down the net after defeating Saint Mary's in an NCAA college basketball game during the championship of the West Coast Conference tournament, Tuesday, March 7, 2017, in Las Vegas. Gonzaga won 74-56. (AP Photo/John Locher)

We have arrived at the biggest gambling event of the year – the NCAA Tournament. Oh yeah, there’s going to be some pretty good basketball as well.

I think this year’s field is incredibly top heavy, and the utter lack of complaint among ‘bubble’ teams that didn’t get in, along with a dearth of quality mid-majors supports that theory.

I want to get into a brief breakdown of reach region but before I do, here is a friendly piece of advice when you are filling out your bracket – don’t fall in love with upsets. CBS and the NCAA market them as part of the allure of the tournament, but Cinderella’s don’t win national championships – great teams do.

Oh by all means, pick that 13-4 or 12-5 upset because they happen, but don’t expect double digit seeds to win multiple games – it’s rare.

With that being said, here we go.

EAST REGION

The Favorites: No. 1 Villanova, No. 2 Duke

The Darkhorse: No. 6 SMU

Top players: Josh Hart (Villanova), Jalen Brunson (Villanova), Jayson Tatum (Duke), Luke Kennard (Duke), Jonathan Motley (Baylor), Semi Ojeleye (SMU), Sindarius Thornwell (South Carolina), Ethan Happ (Wisconsin), Zach LeDay (Virginia Tech), Rodney Bullock (Providence)

The breakdown: The No.1 overall seed and reigning champion Villanova resides here, as does Duke. The Blue Devils are a popular pick because of how well they played during the ACC Tournament, but Villanova probably isn’t getting enough recognition for how consistently good they have been. All the Wildcats did following their run to the national championship last year was go 31-3, tied for most wins ever by a defending champ and 25 of which came by double figures. All that while losing title-game star Phil Booth to a knee injury and 5-star recruit Omari Spellman to academic eligibility issues.

If there is one team that could throw a wrench in what would be a potentially classic regional final between the top two seeds, look no further than SMU. The Mustangs have lost just once since December and play an exciting brand of positionless basketball. No. 8 Wisconsin is probably underseeded, although they faded down the stretch, going 2-4 in their final six games of the regular season.

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SOUTH REGION

The Favorites: No. 1 North Carolina, No. 2 Kentucky, No. 3 UCLA

The Darkhorse: No. 10 Wichita St.

Top players: Joel Berry II (North Carolina), Justin Jackson (North Carolina), De’Aaron Fox (Kentucky), Malik Monk (Kentucky), Lonzo Ball (UCLA), T.J. Leaf (UCLA), Kelan Martin (Butler), Nate Mason (Minnesota), Angel Delgado (Seton Hall), JaCorey Williams (Middle Tennessee State)

The Breakdown: This region has star power and blue blood programs. North Carolina, Kentucky and UCLA are all capable of pushing their way through to the Final Four, although I definitely think the Tar Heels are the most complete team.

UNC has plenty of returning experience from a team that was a Kris Jenkins shot away from going to overtime in the national championship game a year ago. Kentucky has been inconsistent at times, but seems to be peaking right now, thanks to the stellar play of freshman guards De’Aaron Fox and Malik Monk, who will both likely bolt to the NBA after this season. Then there’s UCLA, which plays an incredibly exciting brand of basketball, led by Lonzo Ball, who has made headlines for his play on the court this season, while his father has made them off the court with plenty of outlandish comments.

Also watch out for No. 4 Butler, which handed Villanova two of its three losses this season.

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MIDWEST REGION

The Favorites: No. 1 Kansas, No. 2 Louisville

The Darkhorse: No. 8 Miami

Top players: Frank Mason III (Kansas), Josh Jackson (Kansas), Donovan Mitchell (Louisville), Dillion Brooks (Oregon), Monte Morris (Iowa State), Justin Patton (Creighton), Derrick Walton Jr. (Michigan), Davon Reed (Miami), Miles Bridges (Michigan State), Jawun Evans (Oklahoma State), Marcus Marshall (Nevada)

The Breakdown: Kansas joins Villanova as the only team to be ranked in the Top 10 the entire season, and should certainly be considered the favorite here. Over half of their wins (15) have come by single digits, so the fact that they play a lot of close games makes me slightly nervous.

Looking at the bottom half of the bracket, Rick Pitino’s Louisville team is extremely good defensively and can match up athletically with anyone in the country, ranking sixth in the nation in adjusted defense per KenPom.com. Oregon is dangerous, but lost third-leading scorer Chris Boucher to a torn ACL. Watch out for Purdue here.

They historically underachieve in the tournament, but are the biggest team in the country, led by National Player of the Year candidate Caleb Swanigan.

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WEST REGION

The Favorites: No. 1 Gonzaga, No. 2 Arizona

Darkhorse: No. 5 Notre Dame

Top Players: Nigel Williams-Goss (Gonzaga), Przemek Karnowski (Gonzaga), Allonzo Trier (Arizona), Lauri Markkanen (Arizona), Dwayne Bacon (Florida State), Jevon Carter (West Virginia), Bonzie Colson (Notre Dame), Melo Trimble (Maryland), Jock Landale (St. Mary’s), Trevon Bluiett (Xavier)

The Breakdown: Is this the year for Gonzaga? Despite going 32-1, many questions remain about the Zags and their perceived lack of competition. However, this is a team that has five players averaging 10 or more points per game and boasts non-conference wins over Florida, Iowa State and Arizona in the non-conference.

Speaking of Arizona, they are the favorite of many experts to come out of this region after their run to the Pac-12 tournament championship. Gonzaga’s win over them came without Trier, their leading scorer and was all the way back on Dec. 3. They have NBA talent and a coach in Sean Miller who is in search of his first trip to the Final Four.

Notre Dame is the interesting team to me here. They played a gauntlet of a schedule in the ACC, can beat you offensively from any position on the floor and have a coach in Mike Brey that has had plenty of success in the tournament. Also beware of West Virginia, aka ‘Press Virginia.’

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