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The future reliability of electricity supplies in Pennsylvania and nearby regions has been put at risk by data center development that is causing projections for demand to exceed anticipated supply, the state Public Utility Commission warned Monday.
"Pennsylvania is at an energy crossroads," PUC Chairman Steve DeFrank said in a new release. "Data center development brings significant opportunities, but that growth cannot come at the expense of the families and businesses that already depend on reliable and affordable electric service.”
Data center development proposals have taken off in Pennsylvania in the past few years, with 100 projects or more being discussed or planned. The trigger for DeFrank’s warning was an independent analysis conducted by the consulting firm Synapse Energy Economics that looked into whether sufficient electricity would be available in the future.
PJM Interconnection, the regional transmission organization that coordinates movement of wholesale electricity in Pennsylvania and 12 other states and the District of Columbia, maintains a “load forecast” for future use of electricity in the region. The study found the regional grid fails to meet PJM’s “reliability planning standard” starting in 2027, and by 2030 the modeled reliability risk is six times worse than that standard.
DeFrank said, “This analysis sends a clear warning: electricity demand and supply are moving out of balance, and the status quo is not sustainable. We need urgent action at PJM and a broader Pennsylvania energy strategy that makes sure our supply of electricity keeps pace with demand."
Similar warnings have been issued repeatedly by those who follow electricity matters.
Republican Sen. Gene Yaw of Lycoming County said 18 months ago that “we probably are going to have some blackouts, brownouts” and “we are going to have times when the power that we need is not there.”
Nonetheless, with many communities being pressured by proposed data center development, the General Assembly left Harrisburg on July 12 for a break of nearly two and one-half months without passing any significant data center legislation.
On Aug.18, Democratic Gov. Josh Shapiro – who had been a strong promoter of data center development – abruptly reversed course, condemned much of the industry, and issued an executive order that put restrictions on development.
There have been some calls in the Legislature from both parties for moratoriums on development. None has gained enough traction to pass through both chambers and get Shapiro’s signature.
The study cited by DeFrank at the PUC included a “severe” scenario. It projected that new data center demand in 2029 and 2030 alone across the PJM region would surpass the current annual electricity demand of all of Pennsylvania.
DeFrank said time was important.
“The changes highlighted in this report are not decades away,” he said. “The reliability pressures emerge during the next several years, and the decisions being made now will determine how prepared we are to meet them.”