The Warren County School District expects its budget to shrink in 2024.

To achieve lower expenditures, the district would reduce the teaching staff and, as a result, increase elementary class sizes.

Despite the projected down expenditure year projected for 2024-2025, the district’s budget continues to rise and, at the projected rate, will easily surpass $100 million by 2030.

District Director of Business Services Jim Grosch presented a rough-cut budget to the school board’s finance committee on Monday.

In it, he predicted increasing expenditures in three of the next four years and deficit budgets in all four.

Revenues are down almost $2 million in 2023-2024, compared to this year. That is due to the loss of $1.12 million in ESSER funding and the county’s shrinking tax base, he said.

On the expenditure side, an estimated 3 percent inflation rate has expenditures up $1.5 million compared to this year. “We did a projected inflation value of 3 percent as a rough-cut base to get us started for the season,” Grosch said.

That rate is carried out through 2026-2027 — when the projected expenditures reach $98.3 million — and contributes to the continued growth of the budget.

Since the 2012-2013 school year the budget has gone from $65 million to $93 million.

The $7 million increase from 2021-2022 to 2022-2023 represents nearly one-quarter of that 10-year increase.

In 2023-2024, with the increase for inflation, Grosch projected expenditures of $94.8 million.

The 2024-2025 budget is the only one with an expenditure decrease — to just under $93 million.

“We removed another $4.5 million of ESSER expenses and revenues,” Grosch said. “The grant runs out Sept. 30 of 2024. We’re removing it back out of the budget over the next two years.”

IMPACTS ON CLASS SIZES

The projections show salary and benefits dropping by over $2.6 million while other expenditure lines continue to grow.

“When you talk about the 24-25 budget year, and taking ESSER dollars out of it… we’re taking the biggest hit on salaries,” Board Member Donna Zariczny said.

Superintendent Amy Stewart explained that ESSER has been supporting class-size reduction efforts through the pandemic. The federal dollars have allowed the district to keep 12 teachers to help reduce class sizes to ease pandemic-related learning loss.

The district has a policy that governs class sizes at the elementary level.

According to policy, for grades kindergarten through 2, “students will be assigned a teacher” when there are 11 to 27 students in a classroom.

For grades 3 through 5, the range is 11 to 30 students.

There are steps outlined when a class has more than 27 or 30 respectively.

The ESSER dollars have helped the district stay away from the very top of those ranges at its more populous buildings.

That support is ending.

“Right now (class sizes) are low,” Stewart said. “We have one more year before we have class sizes that are more normal.”

A facilities utilization report was prepared for the district by Thomas and Williamson and presented to the board at a November meeting.

According to the report, all of the elementary classrooms in the district are at least several below the caps set by policy. The only class within three of the cap is the fifth grade at Youngsville, with 27 students in each of two sections.

At Warren Area Elementary Center, there are about 17 students in each of seven kindergarten classes. Cutting two sections, and the teachers that teach them, would put the average class size up to 24.

At Youngsville and Sheffield elementary schools, there are about 14 students in each kindergarten class. Cutting one of the two teaching positions at Sheffield would send that number to 29 — over the cap. Eliminating one of three positions at Youngsville leaves 21 students in each of two classes.

Eisenhower has about 21 students in each of three kindergarten classes. Cutting one teacher there would leave 31 students — more than the policy maximum — in the remaining classes.

According to the numbers in the report, three elementary sections could be cut at Youngsville, one at Sheffield, two at Eisenhower, and five at Warren, without exceeding the policy maximums.

The policy includes steps, other than splitting into more sections, that can be taken when a class exceeds the maximum number — including adding aide or teacher time and reassigning students.

Based on district-wide enrollment, if all of the students were in one building, the district could save 20 positions — five kindergarten, four first grade, four second grade, three in third, three in fourth, and one in fifth – 20 total positions — without exceeding the caps.

The elementary data does not include students in fifth grade at Beaty-Warren Middle School.