As individuals, communities, and states let their guards down, officials are not surprised there has been an upswing in COVID-19 cases in Warren County.

It took more than half a year for the county to go from no cases to 46. It took three days to get from 46 to 56.

Mask use is down. Gathering limits are up and people are gathering for sporting events.

“This is the natural progression that was talked about previously,” Warren General Hospital Chief Nursing Officer Joe Akif said. “Starting to see exposures through work, school and general travel outside the area.”

“There has been a real noticeable decline in the use of masks in the general public,” Akif said. “Recently at Walmart, would say conservatively 25 percent were wearing masks.”

“Also the relaxing of gathering requirements is considered to be contributing to the upturn in exposures,” he said. “While larger outdoor gatherings are allowed, there is still a need to be cognizant of masking and social distancing requirements. Some of the new cases are clusters, but more are not considered same household exposures.”

“We can contain the spread in Warren and the surrounding region,” Warren General Hospital CEO Rick Allen said. “We simply need to be diligent in mask wearing , hand washing and social distancing.”

He said he believes seeing those kinds of precautions enforced at places where people congregate for shopping “would go a long way in this endeavor.”

“I have personally become more sensitive to my masking habits, as I do not want to expose any of my family or loved ones to the virus,” Akif said.

COVID is not the only respiratory illness around.

“The onset of Fall weather is now starting to mix seasonal allergies, colds, flu and COVID symptomology,” Akif said. “We have not had a confirmed flu case yet through the hospital, but we are now entering the season.”

As more people experience symptoms that could be COVID, “this may also move people to test more often,” he said.

“I hate to sound like a broken record, but there is a real need to mask in pubic, continue to wash your hands often, and social distance whenever possible,” he said. “I would also recommend that all should get a flu shot this year. Literature is showing that in countries like Australia, that are just finishing their winter season, there has been diminished flu diagnoses due to increased masking and vaccination. Their flu season has been one of the milder seasons on record.”

“The general consensus is that precautions related to COVID have actually helped mitigate the spread of the flu,” Akif said.

Ten new cases in three days is not a good thing, but Warren County is still free of extreme community spread.

“Even with an upswing in positive/confirmed COVID-19 cases , we have been spared from significant numbers of virus related deaths (only one attributable to Warren County) and inpatient hospitalizations,” Allen said. “To date WGH has had zero COVID -19 inpatient admissions. I am aware through weekly calls that the Erie based hospitals have had very few — only a handful — of COVID-19 inpatients over the past month. With said, it may only be a matter of time, specifically with lax precautions facilitating increased spread and an at-risk elderly population.”

“We are watching this closely at WGH, taking added precautions as the cold and flu season in upon us and more indoor activities are planned,” he said.