Warren among counties with 5 percent-plus population decline

Graphic from the Pennsylvania State Data Center research brief A visual representation of Census data, comparing 2010 information to estimates for 2018 that were released on Wednesday.

Warren County is one of 13 counties in the state to experience population loss of greater than five percent since the 2010 Census.

That’s according to population estimates released by the U.S. Census Bureau on Thursday.

Those estimates indicate that Warren County’s population was 39,498 effective July 1, 2018.

Census data shows the population at the 2010 Census was 41,815, a total loss of 5.5 percent, according to the Pennsylvania State Data Center information released Thursday.

2018 marks the second year where the county’s population has dipped below 40,000 – estimates had the county’s population in 2017 dropping to 39,677 from 40,017.

The 2018 data includes an additional decrease of 169 people.

Unsurprisingly, estimates for each year since 2010 show declines to varying degrees.

Looking at regional statistics, the county’s decline is part of a broader trend – the only counties where the Census Bureau estimates population increases since 2010 that are not in the south east corner of the state are Centre and Butler, according to data from the Pennsylvania State Data Center.

“Southeastern and South Central PA continue to grow as the north and west decline,” a research brief from the Data Center concludes.

12 additional counties have experienced 5 percent or greater decline and four of them border Warren County – Venango, Forest, Elk and McKean. Others in that category include Mercer, Lawrence, Armstrong and Cameron in the northwest, Greene County in the southwest and Sullivan and Susquehanna counties in the north east.

Warren County’s other neighbors – Erie County and Crawford County – also show declines in the 2.6 to five percent range, 3.0 percent and 4.2 percent, respectively.

According to the Pennsylvania State Data Center, Cumberland County – 6.8 percent – is the fastest growing county followed by Lebanon, Centre, Lehigh and Lancaster.

On the flip side?

“Pennsylvania experienced population decreases in 47 counties since 2010, and 38 counties decreased in population between 2017 and 2018,” they conclude.

Since 2010, the counties seeing the largest decline are Cameron – at 11.7 percent – followed by Cambria, Venango, Susquehanna and McKean.

National data revealed that “counties with the largest numeric growth are all located in the south and the west,” according to a release from the Census Bureau, “with counties in Texas taking four out of the top 10 spots.”

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