Fewer Of Us Predicted
State paints grim picture of Warren Co. populationBy CHUCK HAYES
32,145.
That's what the population of Warren County would be in 2030 if nothing is done to attract new residents, according to the Pennsylvania State Data Center, which issued county population projections this week.
The data center forecast is that between the last official census in 2000 and 2030, Warren County will have lost 11,718 people.
The 26.7 percent drop in population would be the second highest rate of decline among Pennsylvania's 67 counties, behind only Wyoming County, where a 26.8 percent decrease in population is projected by the data center.
But what about continuing efforts to attract new businesses to Warren County and enhance and promote the appeal of the community through initiatives such as "Impact Warren?"
None of that is factored into the population projections, according to Jennifer Shultz, demographics services coordinator for the state data center at Penn State-Harrisburg.
Shultz said the projections are based on "natural change" resulting from deaths and births and migration.
The migration data is based on information obtained from the Internal Revenue Service.
"Warren County has a fairly stable number of births and deaths. There's a slight loss due to natural change," said Shultz.
While the number of deaths is expected to remain stable over the next 22 years, Shultz said with fewer women of child-bearing age, the birth rate is expected to decline somewhat.
However, the chief factor in the projected loss of 26.7 percent of Warren County's population by 2030, she said, is the net negative migration rate, based on the loss of 3,000 people between 2000 and 2007.
Not factored into the projections, said Shultz, are efforts to attract people to the area.
"No economic changes are taken into account, absolutely not," said Shultz. "We do not use an economic model that takes any changes of that type into account. We're only looking at demographic data."
"There are a whole host of issues that are very difficult to project," said Shultz. "If the economic development efforts are successful, over the next three years (when the next official census is conducted), we could start to see an increase if we have these positive changes."
Warren County's population at the time of the 2000 census stood at 43,863.
Based on the state data center estimates, Warren County is one of only four counties in Pennsylvania expected to lose more than 20 percent of its population by 2030. In addition to Wyoming County, Elk County's population is expected to drop by 25.2 percent and the population of Indiana County is forecasted to decline by 26.2 percent.
Projections for other counties in the region expected to see a decline in population include McKean County, 13.5 percent; Cameron County, 6.1 percent; Erie County, 4.7 percent; Venango County, 12.8 percent; Crawford County, 0.3 percent, and Potter County, 5.1 percent.
The population of Forest County is expected to increase by 61.7 percent between 2000 and 2030, due in large part to the 2004 opening of the state correctional facility in Marienville.
Pike County is projected to show the most growth, 103.8 percent; followed by Susquehanna County, 83.6 percent; Monroe County, 72.9 percent; and Chester County, 59.6 percent.
Statewide, Pennsylvania's population is expected to increase by 7.4 percent, from 12,281,054 in 2000 to 13,190,400 in 2030.
